Elections and Voting Behavior Archive - HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB

Does homophobia win elections?

hk097846 — Wed, 03 Dec 2025 06:12:23 +0000

2025 | Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer

Does homophobia win elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that symbolic attacks on minority rights can shift voter turnout in ways that strengthen governing parties.

Anti-LGBTQ and anti-gender initiatives have become central elements of illiberal politics. While their cultural and institutional implications are well researched, their impact on political behavior is less clear. The study argues that such measures send strong signals about which identities are socially valued. They can energize voters who oppose LGBTQ rights by boosting their sense of political influence, while discouraging citizens who support equality.

To investigate this dynamic, the authors analyze the adoption of “LGBT-free zone” resolutions across Polish municipalities in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary election. These declarations, promoted by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), publicly positioned local governments against LGBTQ rights. The findings are clear: turnout fell in municipalities that adopted the resolutions, driven mainly by demobilization among opposition supporters. At the same time, turnout for PiS increased, suggesting that the policy environment reinforced the party’s core electorate. These effects hold even when comparing only geographically close municipalities, indicating that they are not driven by broader regional differences.

Overall, the study shows that symbolic anti-LGBTQ measures can meaningfully influence electoral dynamics. They not only reflect illiberal agendas but help entrench them by mobilizing some voters and discouraging others. As anti-gender politics continue to spread internationally, understanding how they reshape participation is key to explaining contemporary patterns of democratic backsliding.

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Contact information

Prof. Dr. Heike Klüver

Email: heike.kluever@hu-berlin.de

Website: https://heike-kluever.com

Dr. Violeta I. Haas

Email: violeta.haas@iast.fr

Website: https://violeta-haas.github.io

Picture:
1 – Boris Štromar / Pixabay / Flag, Pride, Rainbow Image

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Der Beitrag Does homophobia win elections? erschien zuerst auf HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB.

Can social media influencers affect elections?

hk097846 — Tue, 31 Dec 2024 18:37:15 +0000

2024 | Heike Klüver

Can social media influencers affect elections?

They share tips on fashion, nutrition and lifestyle, reach millions of followers and are key opinion leaders of their generation – but social media influencers are also increasingly getting involved in politics. But can they even influence election results?

A new study provides the first reliable evidence: using the example of YouTuber Rezo, who went viral a few days before the 2019 European elections with a video highly critical of the CDU/CSU, research shows that influencers can have a significant effect on young people’s voting behavior. Rezo’s video was viewed over 11.5 million times before the election – and led to a measurable loss of votes for the CDU/CSU.

These findings are particularly relevant to the current debate about the influence of social media on young voters. Social networks such as TikTok, Instagram and YouTube are key sources of information for many young people. Studies show that a significant proportion of under 25-year-olds obtain political information mainly via these platforms. Political parties are increasingly recognizing the importance of these channels and are trying to reach young voters through targeted social media strategies. For example, some parties rely on collaborations with influencers or use their own channels to spread their messages.

This study underlines the need to further research the influence of social media influencers on political processes and to develop strategies to promote balanced and informed opinion-forming among young voters.

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Contact information

Prof. Dr. Heike Klüver

Email: heike.kluever@hu-berlin.de

Website: https://www.heike-kluever.com

Foto:
1 – Pixabay / pexels / Close-up Photography of Smartphone Icons.

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Does homophobia win elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that… … Read More
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Can social media influencers affect elections?

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Der Beitrag Can social media influencers affect elections? erschien zuerst auf HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB.

What are the electoral consequences of supporting minority governments?

p643237 — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 19:06:20 +0000

2024 | Maria Thürk and Heike Klüver

What are the electoral consequences of supporting minority governments?

In times of complicated coalition formation, the idea of a minority government is often introduced into political discourse. While this form of government is viewed critically in Germany, it has proven successful in countries with high democratic values, such as Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand, and Canada. A common assumption is that it is more advantageous for parties to support a government rather than being directly part of it. An example of this is the SPD, which, after the 2017 federal elections in Germany, initially proposed a cooperation coalition instead of joining a traditional governing coalition.
This study examines the effects of supporting minority governments on the electoral chances of parties in 31 countries since 1980. The results show that parties that support a minority government without a formal agreement tend to achieve better election results than coalition partners. They can exert political influence without being held too accountable for the government’s unpopular decisions.
On the other hand, parties that provide contractual support often suffer similar losses to smaller coalition partners. This is because voters tend to assign responsibility for government decisions less clearly when formal agreements are in place. Parties that merely publicly pledge their support, however, have more room to distance themselves from the government and stabilize their electoral results.

READ FULL STUDY

Contact information

Prof. Dr. Heike Klüver

Email: heike.kluever@hu-berlin.de

Website: https://www.heike-kluever.com

Photo: C. Zander / Berlin, Germany – October 21, 2024: Town exit sign from “minority government” to “coalition”

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Radical right parties such as Germany’s AfD, Denmark’s Folkeparti, or Austria’s FPÖ are gaining influence across Europe. But what impact do they actually have on policy when they are in opposition? A new study by Fabio Ellger and Heike Klüver finds that coalition governments significantly shift their positions on immigration policy toward restriction as soon… … Read More
Does homophobia win elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that… … Read More
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A clear political shift to the right is emerging among Europe’s younger generation – driven primarily by young men. A new study based on representative data from all 27 EU member states shows: right-wing populist and far-right parties receive significantly more support among young men than among young women. … Read More
Can social media influencers affect elections?

They share tips on fashion, nutrition and lifestyle, reach millions of followers and are key opinion leaders of their generation – but social media influencers are also increasingly getting involved in politics. Whether on Instagram, YouTube, TikTok or Twitter, influencers are increasingly taking a public stance on political issues such as climate protection, gender equality… … Read More
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Der Beitrag What are the electoral consequences of supporting minority governments? erschien zuerst auf HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB.

Does joining a government coalition as a junior partner affect a party’s future electoral success?

p643237 — Fri, 06 Oct 2023 10:55:00 +0000

2020 | Heike Klüver and Jae-Jae Spoon

Does joining a government coalition as a junior partner affect a party’s future electoral success?

Participation in a government coalition as a junior partner can negatively affect a party’s future electoral success. Junior partners often struggle to fulfill their election promises or sufficiently differentiate themselves from the larger coalition partner, reducing their chances in subsequent elections. A comprehensive analysis of 307 parties that participated in 219 elections across 28 European countries between 1972 and 2017 shows that junior partners perform significantly worse than senior partners after their coalition involvement. A case study confirms that disappointed voters and unfulfilled campaign promises are key reasons for the losses of junior parties.

READ FULL STUDY

Contact information

Prof. Dr. Heike Klüver

Email: heike.kluever@hu-berlin.de

Website: https://www.heike-kluever.com

Photo: Lutsenko_Oleksandr / Shutterstock / Soest, Germany – August 3, 2019: Free Democratic Party (German: Freie Demokratische Partei, FDP) logo

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Radical right parties such as Germany’s AfD, Denmark’s Folkeparti, or Austria’s FPÖ are gaining influence across Europe. But what impact do they actually have on policy when they are in opposition? A new study by Fabio Ellger and Heike Klüver finds that coalition governments significantly shift their positions on immigration policy toward restriction as soon… … Read More
Does homophobia win elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that… … Read More
Perceived inequality as fertile ground for populism

Why are more and more people turning to populist parties? A new study by Lukas F. Stoetzer, Johannes Giesecke, and Heike Klüver shows that not only actual social inequality matters, but also how unequal people perceive their society to be. Those who believe that wealth and influence are concentrated in the hands of a few… … Read More
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked a rise in support for the European Union across member states. A new study based on representative EU-wide data shows: approval of the EU increased noticeably after the invasion – with citizens seeing the Union more as a symbol of stability and security. While the rallying effect was widespread,… … Read More
Young, male, right-wing? Gender gap among young voters

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Can social media influencers affect elections?

They share tips on fashion, nutrition and lifestyle, reach millions of followers and are key opinion leaders of their generation – but social media influencers are also increasingly getting involved in politics. Whether on Instagram, YouTube, TikTok or Twitter, influencers are increasingly taking a public stance on political issues such as climate protection, gender equality… … Read More
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The intensifying frequency of extreme weather events, from catastrophic wildfires to devastating floods, underscores the urgent need for climate policy leadership. … Read More
What are the electoral consequences of supporting minority governments?

In times of complicated coalition formation, the idea of a minority government is often introduced into political discourse. … Read More
Does breaking coalition agreements have an effect on reelection?

Previous studies show that about two-thirds of the measures promised in coalition agreements are actually implemented. … Read More
Which issues can democratic parties effectively use to counter the AfD?

We investigated whether democratic parties can win back voters from right-wing populist parties through targeted campaigns. … Read More
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Participation in a government coalition as a junior partner can negatively affect a party’s future electoral success. … Read More

Der Beitrag Does joining a government coalition as a junior partner affect a party’s future electoral success? erschien zuerst auf HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB.