2024 | Maria Thürk and Heike Klüver

What are the electoral consequences of supporting minority governments?

In times of complicated coalition formation, the idea of a minority government is often introduced into political discourse. While this form of government is viewed critically in Germany, it has proven successful in countries with high democratic values, such as Denmark, Sweden, New Zealand, and Canada. A common assumption is that it is more advantageous for parties to support a government rather than being directly part of it. An example of this is the SPD, which, after the 2017 federal elections in Germany, initially proposed a cooperation coalition instead of joining a traditional governing coalition.
This study examines the effects of supporting minority governments on the electoral chances of parties in 31 countries since 1980. The results show that parties that support a minority government without a formal agreement tend to achieve better election results than coalition partners. They can exert political influence without being held too accountable for the government’s unpopular decisions.
On the other hand, parties that provide contractual support often suffer similar losses to smaller coalition partners. This is because voters tend to assign responsibility for government decisions less clearly when formal agreements are in place. Parties that merely publicly pledge their support, however, have more room to distance themselves from the government and stabilize their electoral results.

Photo: C. Zander / Berlin, Germany – October 21, 2024: Town exit sign from “minority government” to “coalition”