2025 | Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer

Does Homophobia Win Elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that symbolic attacks on minority rights can shift voter turnout in ways that strengthen governing parties.

Anti-LGBTQ and anti-gender initiatives have become central elements of illiberal politics. While their cultural and institutional implications are well researched, their impact on political behavior is less clear. The study argues that such measures send strong signals about which identities are socially valued. They can energize voters who oppose LGBTQ rights by boosting their sense of political influence, while discouraging citizens who support equality.

To investigate this dynamic, the authors analyze the adoption of “LGBT-free zone” resolutions across Polish municipalities in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary election. These declarations, promoted by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), publicly positioned local governments against LGBTQ rights. The findings are clear: turnout fell in municipalities that adopted the resolutions, driven mainly by demobilization among opposition supporters. At the same time, turnout for PiS increased, suggesting that the policy environment reinforced the party’s core electorate. These effects hold even when comparing only geographically close municipalities, indicating that they are not driven by broader regional differences.

Overall, the study shows that symbolic anti-LGBTQ measures can meaningfully influence electoral dynamics. They not only reflect illiberal agendas but help entrench them by mobilizing some voters and discouraging others. As anti-gender politics continue to spread internationally, understanding how they reshape participation is key to explaining contemporary patterns of democratic backsliding.

Contact information

Picture:
1 – Boris Štromar / Pixabay / Flag, Pride, Rainbow Image