2023 | Fabio Ellger, Heike Klüver and Anthea Alberto

Does breaking coalition agreements have an effect on reelection?

Previous studies show that about two-thirds of the measures promised in coalition agreements are actually implemented. But does breaking promises made in coalition agreements affect electoral support? We analyzed data on the implementation of over 7,000 political promises in coalition agreements from 217 cabinet parties in 19 European countries between 2000 and 2015. The results show that compliance with coalition agreements does not have a significant impact on the election results of the parties involved – except for the party of the prime minister, which benefits from the implementation of coalition agreements.

Photos:
1 – Thomas Trutschel / photothek / The low sun illuminates the plenary chamber. View of the Bundestag eagle.
2 – Juergen Nowak / Shutterstock / Berlin, Germany, December 14, 2022. Chancellor Olaf Scholz with his federal ministers Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner during the 75th plenary session of the German Bundestag.