2025 | Fabio Ellger, Heike Klüver

Do radical right parties in opposition influence coalition government policy?

Radical right parties such as Germany’s AfD, Denmark’s Folkeparti, or Austria’s FPÖ are gaining influence across Europe. But what impact do they actually have on policy when they are in opposition? A new study by Fabio Ellger and Heike Klüver finds that coalition governments significantly shift their positions on immigration policy toward restriction as soon as far-right parties are represented in parliament.

The researchers analyzed 165 coalition formations in 24 European democracies between 1980 and 2015. They compared election programs with coalition agreements—documents that are usually only a few weeks apart. The result: coalition negotiations provide an ideal moment for policy shifts. Confidential discussions allow governing parties to adjust their policies without being perceived as opportunistic. Changes can be framed as necessary compromises.

The rightward shift is particularly pronounced in minority governments and in governments that have lost votes compared to the previous election. Surprisingly, the size of the far-right party does not play a decisive role—its mere presence in parliament is sufficient.

Far-right parties do not need to be in government to influence policy. Their parliamentary success alone is enough to induce established parties to adjust their positions. The study also shows that more restrictive positions in coalition agreements translate into more restrictive immigration legislation during the legislative period.

The researchers received the Gordon Smith and Vincent Wright Memorial Prize in recognition of their paper from the journal West European Politics and its publisher, Taylor & Francis.

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1 – moerschy / Pixabay / Bundestag, Parliament, Berlin image. Free for use.