2025 | Fabio Ellger, Heike Klüver

Do radical right parties in opposition influence coalition government policy?

Radical right parties such as Germany’s AfD, Denmark’s Folkeparti, or Austria’s FPÖ are gaining influence across Europe. But what impact do they actually have on policy when they are in opposition? A new study by Fabio Ellger and Heike Klüver finds that coalition governments significantly shift their positions on immigration policy toward restriction as soon as far-right parties are represented in parliament.

The researchers analyzed 165 coalition formations in 24 European democracies between 1980 and 2015. They compared election programs with coalition agreements—documents that are usually only a few weeks apart. The result: coalition negotiations provide an ideal moment for policy shifts. Confidential discussions allow governing parties to adjust their policies without being perceived as opportunistic. Changes can be framed as necessary compromises.

The rightward shift is particularly pronounced in minority governments and in governments that have lost votes compared to the previous election. Surprisingly, the size of the far-right party does not play a decisive role—its mere presence in parliament is sufficient.

Far-right parties do not need to be in government to influence policy. Their parliamentary success alone is enough to induce established parties to adjust their positions. The study also shows that more restrictive positions in coalition agreements translate into more restrictive immigration legislation during the legislative period.

The researchers received the Gordon Smith and Vincent Wright Memorial Prize in recognition of their paper from the journal West European Politics and its publisher, Taylor & Francis.

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1 – moerschy / Pixabay / Bundestag, Parliament, Berlin image. Free for use.

2025 | Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer

Does homophobia win elections?

Far-right and illiberal leaders around the world increasingly turn to anti-LGBTQ rhetoric as a political tool. A new study by Violeta I. Haas, Konstantin Bogatyrev, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stötzer shows that this strategy can yield direct electoral benefits. Examining Poland’s widely discussed so-called “LGBT-free zones”, the authors provide causal evidence that symbolic attacks on minority rights can shift voter turnout in ways that strengthen governing parties.

Anti-LGBTQ and anti-gender initiatives have become central elements of illiberal politics. While their cultural and institutional implications are well researched, their impact on political behavior is less clear. The study argues that such measures send strong signals about which identities are socially valued. They can energize voters who oppose LGBTQ rights by boosting their sense of political influence, while discouraging citizens who support equality.

To investigate this dynamic, the authors analyze the adoption of “LGBT-free zone” resolutions across Polish municipalities in the run-up to the 2019 parliamentary election. These declarations, promoted by the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), publicly positioned local governments against LGBTQ rights. The findings are clear: turnout fell in municipalities that adopted the resolutions, driven mainly by demobilization among opposition supporters. At the same time, turnout for PiS increased, suggesting that the policy environment reinforced the party’s core electorate. These effects hold even when comparing only geographically close municipalities, indicating that they are not driven by broader regional differences.

Overall, the study shows that symbolic anti-LGBTQ measures can meaningfully influence electoral dynamics. They not only reflect illiberal agendas but help entrench them by mobilizing some voters and discouraging others. As anti-gender politics continue to spread internationally, understanding how they reshape participation is key to explaining contemporary patterns of democratic backsliding.

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1 – Boris Štromar / Pixabay / Flag, Pride, Rainbow Image

2025 | Lukas F. Stötzer, Johannes Giesecke and Heike Klüver

Perceived inequality as fertile ground for populism

Why are more and more people turning to populist parties? A new study by Lukas F. Stoetzer, Johannes Giesecke, and Heike Klüver shows that not only actual social inequality matters, but also how unequal people perceive their society to be. Those who believe that wealth and influence are concentrated in the hands of a few are more likely to develop populist attitudes – regardless of how strong objective inequality actually is.

Over the past decades, income and wealth disparities have widened significantly in many European countries. At the same time, support for populist parties has increased. Previous research has shown that rising inequality tends to foster populist movements. The new study, published in the European Journal of Political Research, goes a step further by exploring why and how this link emerges. The authors argue that it is not so much the economic structures themselves that fuel populism, but rather the perception that society is unjustly organized and that political elites primarily serve the interests of the wealthy.

Drawing on data from nearly 40,000 individuals across 20 European countries, the researchers find that people who perceive their society as highly unequal are 2.7 percentage points more likely to support a populist party than those who view their society as fairer. This relationship is particularly pronounced for larger right-wing populist parties such as the Danish People’s Party (DF) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), but it also holds for other populist parties.

A complementary experiment conducted in Germany, Denmark, and Italy further shows that information about actual wealth distribution increases perceptions of inequality—and strengthens populist attitudes. However, in the short term, this does not immediately translate into a higher intention to vote for populist parties.

The findings highlight that populism is driven not only by material inequality, but also by the feeling of living in an unfair society.

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1 – Lea Kobal (@leyko) / Unsplash / |eat the rich|

2024 | Asli Unan and Heike Klüver

Has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed Europeans’ attitudes toward the EU?

The invasion of a neighboring country is a powerful political event – one that can quickly reshape how people view international cooperation. After decades of European integration, a war in Europe seemed virtually impossible to most citizens. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 was a stark reminder that peace in Europe is not guaranteed. But has this external threat changed how citizens view the EU – leading to greater public support?

A new study based on Eurobarometer data collected between February and April 2022 – covering over 26,000 respondents across the 27 EU member states – shows a clear rise in support for the European Union following the invasion. On average, attitudes toward the EU increased by 4 percentage points. This effect grew stronger in the weeks after the war began.

Interestingly, the rise in support was not limited to countries bordering Russia, indicating a broader rallying effect across the EU. However, the shift in attitudes wasn’t uniform. While many citizens responded with more trust in the EU, politically left-leaning individuals showed a slight increase in criticism.

The study contributes to research on “rally around the flag” effects – showing that regional conflict can also lead to greater unity around supranational institutions. The findings suggest that more and more Europeans are beginning to see the EU not just as a political project, but as a key security actor in times of conflict.

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1 – Marco / Pexels / European Union flags in front of the European Commission building

2025 | Ðorđe Milosav, Zachary Dickson, Sara B. Hobolt, Heike Klüver, Theresa Kuhn and Toni Rodon

Young, male, right-wing? Gender gap among young voters

A clear political shift to the right is emerging among Europe’s younger generation – driven primarily by young men. A new study based on representative data from all 27 EU member states shows: right-wing populist and far-right parties receive significantly more support among young men than among young women.

More than 21 percent of men under 30 support a right-wing populist or far-right party – among women of the same age, the figure is only around 14 percent. This gender gap is no coincidence: on average, young women represent significantly more progressive societal values than young men.

The analysis is based on data from the European Election Studies (EES) 2024, which surveyed almost 25,000 people across Europe. Long-term comparisons with previous EES surveys since 1989 show: the gender gap in voting behavior is particularly pronounced among Millennials and Generation Z – and continues to grow.

As political influences in young adulthood often have long-term effects on attitudes and voting behavior, this Europe-wide trend raises key questions for the future of democratic societies.

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1 – Delstudio / Dreamstime / Gender symbols on earth background with a big crack, gender gap concept.

2024 | Heike Klüver

Can social media influencers affect elections?

They share tips on fashion, nutrition and lifestyle, reach millions of followers and are key opinion leaders of their generation – but social media influencers are also increasingly getting involved in politics. But can they even influence election results?

A new study provides the first reliable evidence: using the example of YouTuber Rezo, who went viral a few days before the 2019 European elections with a video highly critical of the CDU/CSU, research shows that influencers can have a significant effect on young people’s voting behavior. Rezo’s video was viewed over 11.5 million times before the election – and led to a measurable loss of votes for the CDU/CSU.

These findings are particularly relevant to the current debate about the influence of social media on young voters. Social networks such as TikTok, Instagram and YouTube are key sources of information for many young people. Studies show that a significant proportion of under 25-year-olds obtain political information mainly via these platforms. Political parties are increasingly recognizing the importance of these channels and are trying to reach young voters through targeted social media strategies. For example, some parties rely on collaborations with influencers or use their own channels to spread their messages.

This study underlines the need to further research the influence of social media influencers on political processes and to develop strategies to promote balanced and informed opinion-forming among young voters.

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1 – Pixabay / pexels / Close-up Photography of Smartphone Icons.

2024 | Tim Wappenhans, António Valentim, Heike Klüver and Lukas F. Stoetzer

Do extreme weather events spur political action on climate change?

The intensifying frequency of extreme weather events, from catastrophic wildfires to devastating floods, underscores the urgent need for climate policy leadership. In a recent study, we test the assumption that these events spur political action on environmental issues.

We examined over 260,000 press releases from 68 political parties across nine European countries spanning 2010-2020. We wanted to understand whether exposure to extreme weather events leads political parties to talk more about environmental issues. Our findings? Beyond a fleeting uptick from Green parties, there is no consistent shift in the attention paid to environmental policies. These findings hold across the political spectrum, event type or whether parties are in government or opposition. This suggests the consequences of climate change might not directly increase political attention.

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1 – Sveta K / pexels / Flooded road section.

2023 | Fabio Ellger, Heike Klüver and Anthea Alberto

Does breaking coalition agreements have an effect on reelection?

Previous studies show that about two-thirds of the measures promised in coalition agreements are actually implemented. But does breaking promises made in coalition agreements affect electoral support? We analyzed data on the implementation of over 7,000 political promises in coalition agreements from 217 cabinet parties in 19 European countries between 2000 and 2015. The results show that compliance with coalition agreements does not have a significant impact on the election results of the parties involved – except for the party of the prime minister, which benefits from the implementation of coalition agreements.

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Photos:
1 – Thomas Trutschel / photothek / The low sun illuminates the plenary chamber. View of the Bundestag eagle.
2 – Juergen Nowak / Shutterstock / Berlin, Germany, December 14, 2022. Chancellor Olaf Scholz with his federal ministers Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner during the 75th plenary session of the German Bundestag.