2024 | Asli Unan and Heike Klüver

Has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed Europeans’ attitudes toward the EU?

The invasion of a neighboring country is a powerful political event – one that can quickly reshape how people view international cooperation. After decades of European integration, a war in Europe seemed virtually impossible to most citizens. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 was a stark reminder that peace in Europe is not guaranteed. But has this external threat changed how citizens view the EU – leading to greater public support?

A new study based on Eurobarometer data collected between February and April 2022 – covering over 26,000 respondents across the 27 EU member states – shows a clear rise in support for the European Union following the invasion. On average, attitudes toward the EU increased by 4 percentage points. This effect grew stronger in the weeks after the war began.

Interestingly, the rise in support was not limited to countries bordering Russia, indicating a broader rallying effect across the EU. However, the shift in attitudes wasn’t uniform. While many citizens responded with more trust in the EU, politically left-leaning individuals showed a slight increase in criticism.

The study contributes to research on “rally around the flag” effects – showing that regional conflict can also lead to greater unity around supranational institutions. The findings suggest that more and more Europeans are beginning to see the EU not just as a political project, but as a key security actor in times of conflict.

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1 – Marco / Pexels / European Union flags in front of the European Commission building